Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
